Coffee and Climate Change: The Future of Your Morning Cup

The biggest coffee climate change risk is simple: research projects that the land suitable for growing Arabica coffee could shrink by about half by 2050 as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift. Coffee won’t disappear, but where it grows, which species we drink and how farmers grow it are all likely to change. Scientists and farmers are already adapting with shade trees, new varieties and long-forgotten coffee species.

Here is what the research says, which regions are most exposed, and what the future of your morning cup might look like.

Why Coffee Is So Sensitive to Climate

Arabica, the species behind most specialty coffee, is a picky plant. According to the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Arabica does best at an average annual temperature of around 19°C (66°F), while Robusta prefers about 23°C (73°F). Coffee also needs the right rainfall pattern, including dry spells that trigger flowering.

That is why coffee grows in a narrow band of tropical highlands known as the coffee belt. Push temperatures too high or disrupt the rains, and plants can suffer from poor flowering, lower yields, uneven ripening and more pressure from pests and diseases.

Coffee and Climate Change: What the Projections Say

A widely cited 2015 study in PLOS ONE, led by Christian Bunn of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and commissioned by World Coffee Research, mapped how coffee-growing climates are expected to change. It reinforced earlier work projecting roughly a 50% reduction in global land suitable for Arabica by 2050.

The impact is not evenly spread:

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, appears in the highest-risk categories, which matters for global supply and prices. Learn more about its growing regions in our guide to Brazilian coffee.

Wild coffee is at risk too

A 2019 assessment led by scientists at Kew found that around 60% of the world’s 124 known wild coffee species are threatened with extinction, due to deforestation, climate change and other pressures. That matters because wild species hold genetic traits, like heat or disease tolerance, that breeders may need in the future.

How Farmers Are Adapting

Farmers are not waiting for 2050. Common strategies include:

• Planting shade trees. A canopy can lower temperatures around coffee plants and help soils hold moisture.
• Moving uphill. In some mountainous regions, coffee is shifting to higher, cooler elevations, though that can put pressure on forests.
• Better water management. Mulching, irrigation and water-saving processing help farms cope with drought.
• Improved varieties. Breeding programs are developing plants with better disease resistance, higher yields and tolerance to tougher conditions.
• Diversifying income. Growing fruit, timber or other crops alongside coffee spreads risk when a harvest fails.
• Switching species. In hotter, lower areas, some farms grow Robusta, which tolerates warmer conditions than Arabica. Our comparison of Arabica vs Robusta explains how they differ in taste and caffeine.

New (and Forgotten) Coffee Species

One of the most exciting threads in coffee research is the revival of species that most drinkers have never tasted.

Coffea stenophylla

Native to Guinea, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast, stenophylla was once grown in West Africa and then largely forgotten. A 2021 study in Nature Plants, reported by Kew, found that it grows in conditions with a mean annual temperature of about 24.9°C, which is 6.2–6.8°C higher than Arabica’s, yet tasters described its flavor as similar to high-quality Arabica. Researchers see it as a potential resource for breeding heat-tolerant coffee, though it is not yet a commercial staple.

Liberica and excelsa

These lesser-known coffees are grown in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia and are attracting fresh interest for their resilience in warm, low-altitude conditions. Their flavor profiles are distinctive and still being explored by roasters and researchers.

Robusta, upgraded

Robusta has long been seen as the bitter, budget option, but carefully grown and processed Robusta can be smooth, chocolatey and bold. As climate pressure grows, quality Robusta is likely to play a bigger role in blends and espresso.

What This Means for Your Morning Cup

1. Prices may stay volatile. Weather shocks in major producing countries can ripple through global prices.
2. Origins may shift. Some familiar regions may produce less, while new areas emerge.
3. Blends may evolve. Expect more Robusta and possibly new species in the mix.
4. Your choices add up. Brewing at home, avoiding waste and composting grounds are small steps within your control.

Coffee and Climate Change FAQ

Will coffee run out because of climate change?

Coffee is very unlikely to disappear, but suitable land for Arabica is projected to shrink and shift. Supply, prices and growing regions are expected to change, and farmers are adapting with new varieties and practices.

Which coffee regions are most at risk?

Research highlights hot, dry areas such as northern Minas Gerais in Brazil, parts of India and Nicaragua as especially vulnerable. Equatorial regions with steady temperatures, including much of Colombia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Indonesia, look more resilient.

Is Robusta better for a warmer climate?

Robusta grows in warmer conditions than Arabica, which makes it a practical option in some hotter, lower areas. It still has its own climate limits and needs good rainfall.

What is stenophylla coffee?

Coffea stenophylla is a rare West African species that tolerates much higher temperatures than Arabica while offering a similar flavor, according to research published in 2021. It is being studied as a resource for future, heat-tolerant coffee.

The Future Tastes Bold

Coffee and climate change will reshape where coffee grows and what ends up in your cup, and Robusta is already stepping into the spotlight. Taste the bolder side of coffee with Feel Espresso’s Robusta from West Java, our high-caffeine Max Caf Blend of Tanzanian coffee and Indian Robusta, or Breakfast Blend +, each roasted 1–5 days before delivery.